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5 ways to make smarter decisions
Vision Chain founder Shawn Dolley explores inserting decision support data into operations.
by Shawn Dolley
- Look at history. The best predictor of the future is the past. Life isn’t a series of brand-new experiences without historical precedent. It’s much more like a mosaic—repeating patterns with some new variation and color. And since history repeats itself, any smart decision must consider past events. Unfortunately, many times when decision makers want to review the past, they don’t have the data. So collecting and keeping historical data searchable, for both simple results and complex patterns, is a sine qua non for smart decisions.
- Add real-time data. The key here is not to completely replace traditional data with what happened yesterday or last week. It’s to make sure recent information doesn’t convincingly quash the assumptions. Audit your decision in light of what’s happening this morning, yesterday, last week. Our ability to get near real-time data on just about any topic, business program, store, customer, policy or transaction is truly miraculous.
If we’re not using it, we’re dinosaurs.
- Take a scientific approach. Most companies have spent millions on business intelligence (BI), but very few do more than ad hoc, exception or dashboard reporting. The amount and speed of data have increased in these systems, and its usability is better. But we haven’t seen breakthroughs in making the analysis more scientific. Look at causal factors, variation and correlation, all of which are usually measured with statistical functions. Find a way to use these. Smarter tests on data lead to smarter decisions.
- Get input, fast. Having one or two people look at your analysis and decision usually guarantees that any mistakes will be uncovered. If you’re confident, have others review your logic and presentation, not the decision itself. Some say the best decisions are made quickly. So when getting input, avoid e-mail. If you can, walk the analysis over or get someone on the phone. Real-time data isn’t real-time if it takes a week for someone to review it.
- Make it pop. In today’s collaborative world, no decision will be acted upon alone. No one in business acts as judge, jury and executioner. To get action, a decision needs to be convincing and simple. However, if your conclusion is influenced by history, real-time data, high science and input from others, then explaining it might not be simple. Here’s where data visualization comes in—be it a napkin diagram, an iconic graph or a picture. It should fit on a single slide, be simple and evoke an emotional call to action. In a word, it has to pop!
Shawn Dolley established software developer Vision Chain in 1999. He is responsible for the company’s visionary approach in the consumer products industry to drive product revenues, increase margins and establish category leadership through enterprise software geared toward analyzing point-of-sale, inventory and RFID data.
Photography by Robert Severi